A battle over datacentre power sources is only part of the picture. Australia needs a much bigger electricity system to meet all future demand
Anthony Albanese has been clear that he wants a set of national standards to ensure datacentre growth accelerates Australia’s push to renewables and keeps a lid on power prices. At the centre of his desired policies was a “BYO power” requirement – a condition that all new datacentres would be powered by 100% renewable electricity.
Andy Burnham urged to seek consensus over response to extreme heat and forthcoming ‘super El Niño’
Andy Burnham should call a cross-party meeting to discuss the UK’s response to worsening extreme weather, including the forthcoming ‘super El Niño’, the Liberal Democrats have said.
The prime minister chaired a Cobra emergency meeting on the drought earlier this month but there has been little from the government on the wider threats posed by five successive heatwaves since May and expected global issues with food shortages and inflation.
The lethal H5N1 strain of avian influenza is rapidly spreading along the coast of southern Australia, where it has killed thousands of wild birds and infected at least two long-nosed fur seals.
So where will it travel next, and what damage might it inflict? Much is uncertain, especially because many of Australia’s animals and ecosystems are so unlike those in other parts of the world.
But monitoring is vital if we are to understand the magnitude of this H5N1 outbreak and protect our most vulnerable species, including the threatened Australian sea lion.
What may be coming
It’s difficult to know how Australia’s current H5N1 crisis will unfold. But we can make four predictions, based on existing knowledge.
Waterfowl will carry the virus inland
Infected waterfowl from coastal southern Australia – such as ducks, herons and swans – will soon carry H5N1 to inland wetland systems. The timing is terrible.
In coming months, the hot and dry conditions created by the El Niño climate pattern will cause those wetlands to shrink. This means vast numbers of waterfowl, already debilitated by scarce resources, will congregate at the few remaining water sources. Weak flow and high densities of dead and dying birds will turn this water into a virus-contaminated soup, leading to further losses.
Macquarie Island’s wildlife will suffer major losses
To date, the significant seabird, seal and king penguin colonies on Macquarie Island have escaped the virus. However, H5N1 has devastated similar colonies on many other subantarctic islands, such as Keguelon and Crozet Islands.
Macquarie’s luck will soon run out, leaving its densely packed colonies of penguins, seals and petrels extremely exposed. In response to this threat, the Australian government has evacuated researchers from the island to protect their physical and psychological health.
Shearwaters will be widely infected
Within a few weeks, vast flocks of shearwaters will return from their global migration to nest on islands off southern Australia, such as those in Bass Strait. Bird flu, likely carried by other seabirds, will await them there. Losses may be substantial.
Scavengers will carry the virus beyond the coast and wetlands
Foxes, roaming cats, mynahs and other scavenger animals will bring H5N1 to our cities. This will have far-reaching impacts on urban wildlife, such as magpies and possums, consistent with declines of urban species overseas.
Bird flu has not yet caused extinction of any species elsewhere in the world. And after the initial outbreak, some affected species have started to recover – in some cases because survivors have stronger immunological responses. This should happen in Australia too.
What is critical now is assessing the conservation impacts of H5N1 on our wildlife.
Counts of dead birds tell us something about the flu’s spread and virulence. But while every death is saddening, corpse tallies alone don’t reflect conservation impact.
For example, thousands of greater crested terns have been killed by H5N1, but these deaths represent a fraction of the global population, estimated to number between 150,000 and 1.1 million. In contrast, there are only about 3,000 Christmas Island frigatebirds in existence, so any losses would be disastrous for that population.
What’s more, counts of deaths can be unreliable as many corpses may never be discovered. Instead, governments should focus on the proportion of a species’ total population that is killed by bird flu. This will allow us to assess the conservation consequences and, over time, the extent of recovery.
Assessing impact is not always straightforward
However, population-level impacts may be challenging to assess.
We have good estimates of population sizes for only a few Australian animal species. Fortunately, this includes some species that are most vulnerable to H5N1, including colonial-breeding seabirds and seals.
Without this data, monitoring can be used to estimate population density at a series of sampled sites or the incidence of certain bird species. Some current monitoring programs, such as the long-running aerial survey of waterfowl across eastern Australia, could provide critical data about the impacts of bird flu.
Interpreting monitoring data can also be complex. In inland Australia, the numbers of many species bounce around, particularly when the weather fluctuates between being wet or dry. With this statistical “noise”, identifying any population declines caused by bird flu is difficult.
There are biases and gaps in monitoring data. Most native mammals are not monitored, so we may have no idea how many die from H5N1. Losses in birds found in remote areas, such as the Heard Island black-faced sheathbill, are also likely to be missed due to lack of regular monitoring.
To understand the nuanced impacts of H5N1 bird flu, monitoring should assess the effectiveness of management actions, changes in breeding success and levels of immunity, mutations and the virulence of the virus itself.
It should also investigate survival rates of infected individuals, the broader environmental risks of losing large numbers of key species and the extent of recovery. Recovery may be harder and take longer for species that have low breeding output and take many years to mature, such as albatrosses.
Without effective monitoring, we will not grasp the true magnitude or significance of the current H5N1 outbreak. It’s what we need to both target emergency responses to the most affected species and measure the extent to which our actions are actually helping.
John Woinarski is an Adjunct Professor at Charles Darwin University. He is also a Director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, co-chair of the IUCN Australasian Marsupials and Monotremes Species Specialist Group. He contributed to the Australian government's bird flu risk assessment for mammals..
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Palau’s capital Koror this week for the annual Pacific Islands Forum, and regional security is expected to top the agenda.
China is testing nuclear-capable missiles in the Pacific, prompting talk of a new regional agreement. The United States-Iran war has exposed a reliance on costly fossil fuels that is undermining Pacific economies.
But the forum will be missing key leaders – Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale made a shock departure, flying out of Palau just hours after arriving, in order to deal with a looming leadership challenge back home.
And Kiribati President Taneti Maamau, Samoan Prime Minister La?auli Leuatea Schmidt, and Vanuatu’s Prime Minister, Jotham Napat, are also not attending. It is unclear if Fiji’s Prime Minister, Sitiveni Rabuka, will be present.
Pacific nations will want Albanese to address the world’s key security threat – climate change. As co-president of the COP31 climate talks in November, Australia can work with the Pacific to keep 1.5°C within reach, and secure much-needed finance for island nations at the climate frontline.
China’s missile test
Since the second world war, the United States has maintained fortified bases in the Pacific and an unrivalled deep-water navy (the US also regularly tests long-range missiles in the region). However, China’s investment in military capabilities has challenged the status quo.
In July, China launched a nuclear-capable test missile that flew over multiple Pacific nations and hit waters close to Tuvalu’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
This sparked calls for a new regional security agreement: Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale said China’s missile test was “not the act of a friend”.
Ironically, it was Solomons Islands that signed a security deal with China in 2022. This changed the security dynamics of a region long aligned with the US and Australia (notwithstanding concerns about nuclear testing and decolonisation).
Since then, Canberra has pursued a web of bilateral deals to shore up Australia’s place as Pacific security partner – first with Tuvalu (2023), then Naoero (formerly Nauru) (2024), Papua New Guinea (2025) and Vanuatu (2026). Discussions are ongoing with Tonga and Solomon Islands. The most recent agreement, an “Ocean of Peace Alliance” signed with Fiji in July, is a mutual defence pact that is open to other Pacific nations to join.
Canberra was already pursuing a treaty allowing for coordinated regional responses to disasters and other crises. China’s missile test may have opened the door for something more.
Palau president Surangel Whipps Jr wants the Pacific to become the first region of the world 100% powered by renewables.David Gray/Getty
Renewables the solution to fuel crisis
The Middle East conflict has pushed the Pacific toward an energy crisis. Around 80% of the region’s energy relies on imported oil products, much of which would normally transit the Strait of Hormuz. Even before the US-Iran war, Pacific island countries spent an eye watering percentage of GDP (between 10-25% buying fossil fuels to run power plants, generators, boats and vehicles. This compares to a regional average of 8% spent on education and 6% on health.
The Middle East conflict has only added to the bill. According to a new report, Fiji’s annual refined fuel import costs could rise by US$375 million (A$520 million) if high oil prices persist. This is more than Fiji’s entire healthcare budget.
The incoming chair of the Pacific Islands Forum, Palau president Surangel Whipps Jr, wants the region to become the first in the world 100% powered by renewables. He says investment of US$120 million (A$ 166 million) is needed for Palau to add 60MW of solar and battery storage, which would enable 90% of its power needs to be met by renewables.
Climate change remains greatest Pacific threat
When climate change was first debated at the UN Security Council in 2007, Pacific countries argued the impacts of a warming planet were “no less serious than those faced by nations and peoples threatened by guns and bombs”.
Since then, Pacific Islands Forum leaders have explicitly reaffirmed climate change is “the single greatest threat” to Pacific security.
In 2025, Earth was 1.44°C warmer than the long-term average. Pacific countries are reeling from stronger cyclones, dying reefs and ocean acidification. Without urgent action to shift away from coal, oil and gas impacts will get much worse. Just this week, the world’s oceans are the warmest on record, fueled by climate change and a rapidly intensifying El Niño event.
It is now almost certain the world will warm past 1.5°C. Yet it remains possible, following a temporary “overshoot”, that countries can limit warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This will require deep and immediate emissions reductions and some carbon dioxide removal to achieve “net-negative” emissions.
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is a line in the sand for low-lying Pacific nations – “1.5 to stay alive” is the slogan. Pacific negotiators helped secure this temperature goal in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Pacific countries will also seek new finance for a Pacific-owned climate fund to invest in community-scale adaptation projects.
Some argue collaboration with the Pacific in the lead-up to COP31 is an expensive exercise. But climate action is crucial to Australian strategy in the region. Investing in renewables and adaptation in the Pacific is an investment in shared security, even as geopolitical competition sharpens between China and the United States.
Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia
