Flooded market leaves pioneering WA abalone ranch close to the end
Rare Foods Australia winds down operations amid a Chinese supply glut and falling prices for abalone, after once being the biggest employer in the WA seaside town of Augusta.
From war to weather, Australian farmers are planting spring crops in an uncertain world
Australian farmers are heading into spring with an unusual mix of optimism and uncertainty.
The latest crop forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicts the nation’s farmers will harvest 61 million tonnes of winter crops.
That would be Australia’s fourth-largest winter harvest on record, sitting 16% above the ten-year average. Despite a dry winter forecast, better than expected rainfall boosted crop growth across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales.
But these national figures don’t capture differences between regions, which can be enormous. For example, conditions in the Mediterranean climate of Western Australia’s cropping zone can be completely opposite to the graingrowing regions of northern NSW with their warm, wet summers.
And fluctuating global fuel and fertiliser markets, coupled with a potentially record-breaking El Niño, are forcing farmers to make some difficult decisions.
Wars and weather
Australian farmers are under pressure on multiple fronts. Here are two worth noting.
Protracted wars
Far beyond Australia’s borders, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have made fuel, fertiliser, freight and commodity markets even more volatile.
For Australian farmers, the consequences are tangible. High fuel costs and supply constraints limit their ability to apply more fertiliser to their soils. As nitrogen prices soar and forecasts point to a dry end to the season, investing in a crop that may run out of water makes little economic sense.
High fertiliser costs and supply concerns have clearly influenced planting decisions in some regions, according to ABARES data. Some farmers have shifted from wheat to barley, as barley tends to cope better in dry conditions and typically has lower planting costs and fertiliser needs.
But not every farmer responds to fluctuating commodity prices in the same way. Many farmers base planting decisions on factors like plant biology and climatic conditions, rather than price forecasts. Some are sceptical about using ABARES forecasts to make immediate decisions, given government data often lags behind reality.
A strengthening El Niño
A potentially record-shattering El Niño is already underway. The Bureau of Meteorology’s spring outlook suggests it will bring drier conditions to much of southeast Australia and southwestern WA.
For farmers in these regions, this raises concerns about scarce rainfall and late frost. Crops in some areas are several weeks ahead of normal development, potentially leaving flowering and legume crops exposed to frosty conditions.
Read more: A record-shattering El Niño is almost here. Here’s what that means for the world’s weather
A mixed bag
To better understand what current conditions are like, we spoke to two farmers from Queensland and WA.
The southern states of Victoria and SA grow the vast majority of our national lentil and faba bean crops. Peter Wilson, a Queensland farmer, Grains Australia Pulse Council chair and director of Wilson International Trade, described conditions in those states as:
very good, with strong soil moisture heading into spring.
Conditions in Queensland and northern NSW’s chickpea regions have been much drier. Recent rain has helped, but local farmers expect yields around average or slightly below.
ABARES data tells a similar story. Lentil production is forecast to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes, while chickpea production could fall by 52%.
In WA, the picture is different again. Brad Burns, who farms in Balla northeast of Geraldton, told us the season began:
almost as good as I’ve witnessed.
Then the rain largely stopped. His farm received just 12 millimetres in August and some of his early wheat has suffered frost damage, something local farmers don’t often encounter. Burns’ early sown canola, wheat and lupin crops are on track to produce above average yields. But, in contrast to national averages, later sown crops will potentially be low yielding, especially without more rain.
Read more: Fertiliser prices and shortages are hamstringing our farmers. But we have other options
Are food shortages a possibility?
In the drought-stricken United Kingdom, farmers are warning of food shortages as they struggle to salvage what little crops they have. Globally, the United Nations predicts the imminent El Niño could push nearly 50 million vulnerable people into acute hunger.
Thankfully, Australians don’t need to worry about food shortages. Our country remains a major food exporter and the latest ABARES forecast is reassuring. It projects wheat production will hit 29.9 million tonnes, which is 3% above the ten-year average. Australia is set to produce 16.4 million tonnes of barley and 7.3 million tonnes of canola, up by 30% and 37% respectively, on their ten-year averages.
The biggest risk for consumers is volatile prices, not empty supermarket shelves. Fluctuating fuel and fertiliser markets are increasing the costs of on-farm production, processing and transport. High grain prices drive up the cost of flour, bread and animal feed, which in turn makes meat, eggs and dairy more expensive.
Read more: Europe is battling a record-breaking heatwave. What’s making it so severe?
What do our farmers need now?
Most importantly, we must recognise farmers make an invaluable contribution to Australia’s economy and social fabric. The 2026 National Farmer Wellbeing Report found 91% of Australian farmers feel undervalued, up from 76% in 2023.
Removing excess red tape should be another priority. Industry bodies such as Cattle Australia and the NSW Farmers’ Association say complex regulations around recruitment, pesticides and resource use are stopping farmers from producing the food and fibre Australia needs.
Government must also invest in measures that will help insulate Australian farmers from global commodity shocks and extreme weather. This includes funding research into crop genetics and lower-emission fertilisers.
Consumers can also help by buying Australian-grown produce and reducing food waste, where possible.
The latest national figures suggest Australia is heading towards another impressive harvest. But the experiences of local farmers – who may soon harvest one high-yielding crop while struggling to break even on another – reveal what national forecasts can’t capture. And what happens between now and harvest time remains to be seen.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Wilsons Prom’s Sealers Cove track reopens after five years
The road to repair Sealers Cove is a tale straight from the pages of Swiss Family Robinson, involving helicopters, barges, and a temporary camp and mess hall to get the job done.
Solar panels going to landfill while Labor’s $25m recycling scheme on hold
Australian Council of Recycling says it has had ‘no clarity about the nature of the complaint’ that delayed program announced in January
Recycling operators have expressed growing alarm about delays to a solar panel recycling scheme promised by the Albanese government with fears some could go bust while they wait.
The $25m pilot scheme was announced in January to help develop a local industry for the recycling of panels and the recovery of valuable materials such as copper and aluminium.
Why the story of urchin barrens and kelp forests is more complex than we thought
It’s not hard to find a long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) on rocky walls and in underwater forests comprised of golden kelp (Ecklonia radiata) and crayweed (Phyllospora comosa) in southeast Australia.
They also live in “urchin barrens”, areas of bare rock and encrusting algae. In media reports, these areas are often described as “lifeless moonscapes”. In this telling, large numbers of urchins eat their way through kelp forests and create new barrens.
This isn’t quite fair on the barrens – or the urchins. Much concern has focused on how fast barrens have expanded their range into Tasmanian waters in recent decades as oceans have warmed up. But in New South Wales, barrens do not appear to be increasing. Barrens are vital habitat. By some measures, they can be richer in species and host different invertebrates than kelp forests.
Urchins, too, may be being judged unfairly. Across their native NSW range, long-spined urchin populations have been stable over long timeframes.
Long-spined urchins have long been suggested as the key cause of kelp forest declines, because disappearing kelp coincides with more urchins. In response, authorities have launched urchin control programs, where divers pull urchins from the sea.
But recent research suggests it’s not that simple. Kelp species like cold water, and the oceans are warming fast. Urchins may well be a symptom, not the key cause.
Of urchins and underwater barrens
Like many urchin species, long-spined urchins are omnivores. They eat kelp as well as small worms and other invertebrates, tiny organic particles and drifting algae.
The question is, how heavily do they depend on kelp? Long-spined urchins graze differently to most other urchins. They don’t actively move towards kelp and cannot climb into the kelp canopy to feed. Unlike other native urchins, they don’t form dense “feeding fronts” typically associated with creating barrens.
Across their native range in southeastern Australia, long-spined urchins prefer shallower waters (down to ~15–20 metres) and their mobility to access kelp is limited compared to other species. That means they eat kelp within well-defined boundaries.
In recent research, we collected 100 long-spined urchins from barrens and kelp forests off the coast of New South Wales. We examined their gut contents and found they had been eating invertebrates, kelp and particulate matter.
We then used a different approach, stable isotope analysis, to estimate the long-term dietary proportion for each food group. We found urchins were using kelp as food, but that invertebrates and particulate organic matter were often equally or more important.
In southern NSW, the recent decline of kelp forests has been attributed to grazing urchins. But our results show urchins in these waters relied far more strongly on particulate matter. Even within dense kelp forests, urchins can rely more on food other than kelp.
Are urchin predators in short supply?
So why are long-spined urchins so common?
One possibility is a lack of large predators. It is often suggested overfishing of eastern rock lobsters (Sagmariasus verreauxi), eastern blue groper (Achoerodus viridis) and pink snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) has removed natural controls on urchin numbers.
But do these predators often eat long-spined urchins? To test this theory, we analysed the gut contents of gropers and snapper and eastern rock lobsters and ran wild and caged feeding trials with lobsters. We found urchins were being eaten by these species, but only rarely. Predator size didn’t appear to matter.
When we used isotope analysis on these predators, we found little direct evidence the two fish species relied on long-spined urchins. Snapper appeared more likely to be long-spined urchin predators than blue groper, while rock lobsters showed far less potential reliance on them.
Are our interventions helping?
It’s natural to be concerned about disappearing kelp forests. Culling urchins and protecting their predators have been proposed as ways to help kelp.
The problem is, culling costs money, takes continual effort, is very hard to scale and has limited long-term effectiveness. Recent research found when long-spined urchins were removed across large areas, those remaining reproduced faster.
What about protecting urchin predators? Even when large predators are present, long-spined urchins appear to be at the bottom of the menu.
In long-protected areas such as Jervis Bay Marine Park, large urchin predators are abundant, but kelp-free urchin barrens persist. This suggests the role of predators has been overstated.
Urchins may not be the major cause of kelp forest loss. But once kelp is gone, their grazing of young kelp does stop it regrowing, maintaining the barrens.
So what else might be killing kelp forests?
Kelp likes cold, salty water. But Australia’s coastal waters are warming fast, while large volumes of fresh water from intense floods kill swathes of kelp. Climate change is worsening each of these threats.
The same climate-boosted threats also affect urchins. Pulses of fresh water and storms rapidly reduce urchin numbers across a large area.
Long-spined urchins do eat kelp and predators do eat urchins. But our body of research shows these relationships are more complex than often made out.
We can’t just say urchins are the problem and that the solution is to keep pulling them from the sea.
Protecting gropers, snapper and lobsters may have little effect on urchin control. But it’s worth doing because they’re ecologically valuable in their own right.
Spotting more long-spined urchins after kelp disappears may be a symptom of broader collapse, rather than the main cause. Long-term solutions will require confronting the elephant in the room – the rapid warming of our oceans due to climate change.
Jeremy Day has received funding support from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales and the Ecological Society of Australia.