Many people despise these birds for violently defending their babies in nests they create in ridiculously vulnerable areas. My community, however, became devoted to them
It was early September when the two spur-winged plover chicks hatched.
They hit the ground running, literally. Shortly after emerging from the speckled brown eggs their mother had laid in a shallow divot, they were scurrying around on their disproportionately long, stilt-like legs. They looked like fluffy brown and white cotton balls that could blow away in the wind.
We first predicted a severe ozone hole in May this year, when we observed changes in atmospheric circulation. A very strong polar vortex and cold temperatures over the pole are driving the early and large growth of the ozone hole.
But rest assured, the Montreal Protocol – a landmark global treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out ozone-depleting substances – is still working.
The levels of ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere have dropped by about a third since their peak around the year 2000.
Despite its larger area, the 2026 ozone hole hasn’t reached the depths of other large ozone holes from the past, meaning there is less “missing” ozone overall.
The hole then rapidly grew from the start of September. At 27.4 million square kilometres, this record area has only been broken twice: in 2000 the ozone hole briefly reached more than 28 million square kilometres and in 2015, it peaked during October at 27.9 million square kilometres.
How the Antarctic ozone hole works
The ozone hole forms in early spring inside the stratospheric polar vortex, a strong wind pattern that forms every winter and encircles Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
Once formed, the ozone hole’s longevity depends on how well isolated the air is within the polar vortex. A cold and robust vortex leads to a long-lasting ozone hole. Hence, large-scale atmospheric dynamics play a key role.
However, sometimes the dynamics of the polar vortex can be “primed” leading into spring. Over several months prior, patterns of airflow can change and lead to a stronger and colder vortex.
If this happens, the ozone hole may grow larger and deeper, and last longer, even if chemical healing is underway.
Early predictions and the outlook for 2026
Improving the predictability of severe ozone hole events remains an ongoing scientific challenge.
The area of the 2026 ozone hole peaked at more than 27 million square kilometres.CAMS/ECMWF, CC BY-SA
So far, September observations are matching early predictions. But what will happen next?
Unless the dynamical conditions above the pole shift, our prediction is that we are set for a prolonged season, with a major hole continuing through October and November. Recent work from our team will allow us to quantify just how much atmospheric dynamics exacerbated this year’s ozone hole.
We can expect 2026 to have an overall ranking within the top ten most severe ozone holes of all time.
A severe ozone hole in 2026 isn’t entirely unexpected. Since 2020, we have experienced a run of other large and long-lasting Antarctic ozone holes during the years from 2020 to 2023.
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha?apai submarine volcano in 2022 led to an early start to the 2023 ozone hole season. All things considered, the 2020s have been a unique decade for ozone recovery.
The opposite phase can lead to more extreme wind events, such as the series of destructive storms that lashed parts of New Zealand during October last year.
But in recent years, the ozone hole has routinely persisted late into spring. Changes in global atmospheric dynamics could be making longer-lived ozone holes more likely, and the projected timeline of ozone recovery could be missing critical aspects of this behaviour.
For Aotearoa New Zealand, this means the ozone hole will continue to affect winds and temperatures on our shores for several more decades.
Hannah E. Kessenich receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
Annika Seppälä receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
Dan Smale receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
The prime minister tells the UN climate change and AI are key challenges demanding urgent global cooperation, just two days after Donald Trump told the same forum that both concerns were a “hoax”.
The last time Delvene Delaney visited Kakadu was during the filming of Crocodile Dundee and its sequel Crocodile Dundee II — both co-written and produced by her late husband John Cornell. That was 40 years ago, and now she’s returned to reminisce.
United States President Donald Trump has called for a ban on US diesel exports as record-high domestic fuel prices drag down his popular support.
With the US midterm elections looming, a proposed export ban appears to be a bid to reinvigorate Trump’s voter base.
As tensions escalate in the Middle East and global fuel reserves reach a critical low, Trump’s proposal could have major ramifications for the global economy and Australia – the largest per capita consumer of diesel among developed nations.
A fuel tanker road train driving on Australia’s Stuart Highway.Felix Cesare/Getty
Trump’s approval rating at record low
President Trump returned to office in January 2025 with pledges to tame inflation, cut fuel prices and end foreign wars. But with the US midterm elections just six weeks away, voters see Trump going backwards on all three of those promises.
US inflation is sitting at 3.4%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. The Fed has increased interest rates for the first time in three years, intensifying cost pressures for households and small businesses.
Fuel prices have soared 50% since the start of the US–Iran conflict, putting serious strain on households. The pain has been most acute in Republican strongholds across rural America.
Voters are unhappy with the Trump administration’s decision to wage war with Iran. The conflict has become the least popular war in US history, just beating Vietnam, and Trump’s own approval rating has hit a career low of 32%.
In the upcoming midterms, the Republican Party is widely expected to lose its slim majority in the House. Worryingly for Trump, there’s a growing likelihood of the Republicans also losing the Senate. Losing both chambers would be a worst-case scenario for Trump, and severely limit his ability to pass legislation.
Australia’s mining, transport and agriculture industries rely heavily on diesel.dane-mo/Getty
Why a diesel export ban would hurt the US and world
The United States is the world’s largest exporter of diesel, producing around 20% of the world’s supply. With another 20% of global oil supply blockaded in the Strait of Hormuz, fuel markets are near breaking point.
The situation is increasingly dire. Efforts by Saudi Arabia to reroute oil exports through its East-West pipeline and towards the Red Sea have been tripped up by an Iran-backed Houthi militia, which launched a drone strike on the pipeline and are setting up a separate blockade on the Red Sea.
Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian oil production has led Putin to extend his full ban on diesel exports. Trump has asked Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries.
At the same time, global fuel reserves are reaching a critical low as the northern hemisphere creeps towards peak winter fuel demand.
A ban on US diesel exports would add serious strain, increasing diesel prices and impacting the global economy. Australia, as the largest per capita consumer of diesel among developed nations, is particularly vulnerable to a potential diesel shortage.
Although Australia does not import diesel from the US, outside of an emergency shipment sent in March, Australia is vulnerable to global diesel prices which would rise quickly if the US restricted its exports, and could even lead to fuel rationing.
It would also hurt America. Although domestic diesel prices would fall, the US would be flooded with supply, to the point where US refineries would have to slow down production. This is why the White House has ruled an outright ban, but other options are still on the table.
Diesel prices have surged in recent months, largely due to the ongoing US–Iran war.Miguel Perfectti/Getty
What could Trump do next?
Although an outright ban on diesel exports is likely out of the equation, the Trump administration will be looking for ways to bring down fuel prices at home.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking soon after Trump called for the diesel export ban, highlighted a plan to allow American fuel markets to voluntarily direct exports toward the US market. With details still forthcoming, this could include a financial incentive for fuel makers, potentially through tax concessions.
The global diesel shortage could be discussed at the Trump-Xi summit in Washington DC which began this week. China is also a significant producer of diesel – working together to increase global supply could avoid the worst of an impending supply crunch.
The White House could opt for an export quota, setting a cap on how much diesel leaves US shores. This would potentially mitigate the risks of flooding the domestic market. The Trump administration might also want the quota to be applied selectively to different countries, giving the US another bargaining chip in trade negotiations.
Major diesel consumers like Australia must be alert to the potential risks to their supply chains. With global fuel markets reaching breaking point, Trump’s next decisions could tip the balance of the global economy for better – or worse.
Robert Monterosso does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
