Simon Stiell makes opening address at summit in Turkey, where talks are under way about speeding up shift to electrification
A global fossil fuel price crisis is “spreading inflation like a cancer” around the planet, the UN’s climate chief, Simon Stiell, told the opening plenary of critical UN climate talks in Turkey.
Stiell joined Cop31 hosts Turkey and Australia, which is leading the negotiations, in promoting renewable energy and a new electrification goal as an optimistic alternative to a planet still tied to oil, coal and gas.
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Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, is about to embark on his most significant diplomatic challenge. For the next two weeks, Bowen takes on the role of “president of negotiations” at the United Nations climate summit, COP31, in Turkey, also called Türkiye.
However, in Turkey he faces his biggest challenge yet. Australia’s significant contribution to climate change as a fossil fuel exporter hangs over its negotiating team. This is especially the case if Australia wants to showcase its “partnership with the Pacific”, a region acutely vulnerable to climate change.
At last year’s conference in the Brazilian city of Belém, an impasse between Australia and Turkey over who would host was broken with a compromise deal. Turkey would host the 2026 climate summit, and Australia would shape the agenda and co-host an earlier Pacific pre-COP meeting in the Pacific to discuss the threat of climate change to small island nations.
These talks in Fiji and Tuvalu in early October faced criticism over the low turnout of world leaders. But Bowen defended the meetings, pointing out these preparatory events do not usually involve leaders. It was still a major diplomatic win for the region, he said.
Australia says its presidency will give it “exclusive authority” to shape global climate decisions. But Australian negotiators could struggle to simultaneously work effectively with Turkey, represent Pacific concerns, secure international agreement and advance Australian interests. The latter, linked to profits from fossil fuel exports, likely includes a gradual, rather than immediate plan, to phase out fossil fuels.
Pulling off this balancing act will be no mean feat.
The Antalya EXPO Center where the United Nations climate conference will be held next week.Orhan Cicek/Getty Images
What’s on the agenda for COP31?
This year’s summit is being referred to as an “implementation COP”, with a focus on practical initiatives to turn existing commitments into tangible action.
A key goal of COP31 is boosting global electrification. Turkey and Australia will try to secure support for the goal of “35 by 35”, meaning 35% of consumer energy should come from electricity, rather than fossil fuels, by 2035. The rationale for this goal is that it’s easier to generate electricity from renewable sources.
Other goals include halving the growth of waste the world generates, and cutting energy intensity in the building sector. While worthy aims, some environmental groups have been critical of the limited ambition of the agenda given the scale of the climate challenge.
What are Australia’s priorities?
Bowen has indicated he’s keen to push wealthy countries to commit more climate funding. He has singled out the need to increase funding for small island countries to address climate damage and disruption.
These commitments align with Pacific concerns. And they arguably reflect Bowen’s eagerness to make good on his claim that Pacific interests will be advanced by Australia as president of negotiations.
A skeptical view
A skeptical view of Australia’s position is that it reflects strategic concerns about the Pacific. This particularly applies to China, which has been increasingly engaged in the region. Canberra is concerned Beijing will gain a military and strategic foothold in a region close to Australia’s territory.
Australia’s embrace of Pacific climate leadership could therefore be viewed as a means of contesting China’s regional influence. Some experts say advancing Australia’s strategic concerns in the Pacific might require leadership on the issue most important to the region: climate change.
It’s certainly politically easier for Bowen and Australia to play a prominent role in international negotiations than block any new fossil fuel projects at home.
A diplomatic tightrope
Last year, Australia belatedly joined 80 countries as a signatory to the Belém agreement, a voluntary agreement made at COP30 in Brazil, to accelerate the phase-out of coal, oil and gas. Oil-producing countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia opposed any mention of fossil fuels in the COP30 final statement.
For the Albanese government, the Paris Agreement “loophole” – which means only emissions produced in Australia (not overseas) count towards our climate targets – has helped it bypass the toxic politics of climate change at home. Australia can say we’re progressing towards ambitious emissions reduction targets at home. But it can also enjoy the financial benefits from fossil fuel exports that produce close to 5% of global emissions.
Whether Bowen is genuinely pushed on this issue in Turkey and how he responds will be crucial to watch next week.
Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council
This week, around 80 world leaders – including Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese – will descend on the coastal Turkish city of Antalya for the annual United Nations climate summit, COP31. For the first time, the summit duties will be shared; Turkey will play host, while Australia leads negotiations.
At home, these national leaders have no shortage of issues to contend with: the challenges of AI, major wars and declining trust in democracy. Yet looming over all of them is the existential threat posed by a heating planet.
Climate change is a truly global challenge. Greenhouse gases have no respect for national boundaries, and the devastating impacts are being felt everywhere. We don’t have a world government, but we do have processes of international diplomacy to hammer out shared commitments. This is how the world is trying to deal with the climate crisis.
It can be easy to be pessimistic, but COP31 can still deliver real progress. In Antalya, countries will consider a global electrification target to hasten the shift from coal, oil and gas toward clean electricity.
If agreement can be found, this will be a major step forward.
Remind me, what is a COP?
When scientific consensus emerged on global warming in the 1980s, countries negotiated and signed a new framework on climate change in Rio De Janeiro in 1992.
Since then, diplomats and negotiators have met annually for the UN’s Conference of Parties (COP) to discuss how to address dangerous human-made climate change. These talks have become huge, attended by tens of thousands of delegates every year. This year, the 31st COP is being held in Antalya, Turkey.
After three decades of climate talks, countries are turning the tide on emissions. Many are transitioning away from fossil fuels, if not at the speed required. Overall, global emissions held roughly flat in 2025, though lower wildfire and land-use emissions masked continued growth from fossil fuels.
Yes, the annual UN climate talks are beset by challenges. The United States has withdrawn completely. Countries are not on track to limit warming to agreed levels. Governments can’t even agree when to release the next report on global warming to guide negotiations.
In some ways it’s a miracle these talks achieve anything. Agreements must be reached by consensus and endorsed by 190-plus countries, from petro-states in the Middle East to vulnerable island nations in the Pacific.
Consensus is both strength and weakness. When agreements are reached, they have great legitimacy. The 2015 Paris Agreement came after two decades of hard-fought negotiations. The agreement was a monumental achievement.
But consensus also means COP decisions tend to be “lowest-common-denominator” outcomes, representing incremental progress. Again and again, politics and diplomacy fall short of what the science says is required. Still, if we take a long view, we can see the UN climate talks have helped avoid the most catastrophic global warming and are transforming economies.
A demonstrator holds a banner showing the 1.5°C mark, as demonstrators march past the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany, in April to protest for renewable energies. The UN has confirmed the world will overshoot 1.5°C in the next few years.Photo by Omer Messinger/Getty Images
Before the Paris Agreement, the world was on track for a cataclysmic 4°C degrees of warming this century. The first wave of emissions targets brought this below 3°C. The 2025 round of targets suggests countries may limit warming to 2.6°C.
Every fraction of a degree matters. With more ambitious policies, we could theoretically still peak warming at 1.8C and return below 1.5°C later this century through investment in carbon dioxide removal. However, this would take a radical step-change in ambition.
Since Paris, more than 130 countries have set long-term targets to achieve net-zero emissions. Countries have begun to signal the end of the fossil fuel era. At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, countries agreed to “phase down coal”. At COP28 in Dubai in 2023 they agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”. The task now is to make good on these promises.
Taken together, COP commitments act as a market signal. This year, global investment in clean energy hit A$3.2 trillion – twice as much as investment in coal, oil and gas. Renewables also overtook coal as the world’s biggest source of electricity.
A new age of electricity
For COP31, there is a push for an electrification target of “35 by 35”. Both Turkey and Australia are pressing for a global commitment to increase the share of the energy delivered to consumers by electricity, from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035. It sounds wonkish, but could usher in a new age of electricity.
Ironically, given his support for the oil industry, US president Donald Trump has made perhaps the clearest case for electrification. The US war on Iran has triggered the largest disruption of oil supply in history. Demand for clean energy technologies is surging as countries seek alternatives to volatile fossil fuel imports.
The exact form of an electrification target at COP31 will be subject to intense negotiations. Australian climate minister Chris Bowen will have his task cut out for him as chief negotiator.
In itself, COP31 can’t deliver a silver bullet for climate action. But if it reinforces international cooperation and moves the dial forward on global electrification, hope remains.
Wesley Morgan is a fellow at the Climate Council of Australia
