Much is being made of a record-strength El Niño event that could well spell a drier, windier summer for the north and east of New Zealand. But, as a major new stocktake shows, it is forming against a backdrop of warming that’s pushed the country’s climate into “uncharted territory”.
Carbon dioxide (CO?) levels, as measured at a monitoring station at Baring Head, are up by 30% since 1972 and the annual rate of increase has tripled since the 1960s. Globally, CO? levels are now higher than they have been for millions of years.
The warming will continue to accelerate an already dramatic loss of glacial ice in New Zealand, with glaciers expected to lose 50% to 85% of their remaining mass this century and some possibly disappearing completely unless emissions are brought down fast enough.
With the El Niño on top of the ongoing warming, some parts of the country can expect stronger rainfall extremes this summer, particularly in the west of the South Island, while some eastern regions will experience more intense drought.
New Zealand’s global role
The report also highlights New Zealand’s contribution to global emissions. While New Zealanders account for only 0.06% of the world’s population, they add 0.17% to total emissions. On a per-capita basis, New Zealanders are among the top 40 emitters internationally.
While tracking background warming trends, the report also discusses changes in episodic extreme events that can cost lives and damage housing, infrastructure and livelihoods.
New Zealand is set to see a future of more frequent and extreme droughts, heatwaves and fires, along with bigger floods. However, cold extremes will be rarer, along with huge changes to cooler parts of the country that will affect water and food security.
Higher temperatures and drying imply a greater reliance on dryland agriculture, and reduced cooling in winter will affect where pip and stone fruit can be grown because they require winter chilling to flower and fruit successfully.
This puts pressure on coastal communities and ecosystems, with virtually inevitable loss of infrastructure and private property in coastal floods over the course of this century and beyond.
Climate impacts are not evenly distributed and will affect different communities in different ways. M?ori communities and business interests are especially exposed.
Significant parts of New Zealand’s economy, including agriculture and tourism, are directly exposed because they rely on the environment.
As the report shows, there are already major and expensive impacts in many sectors. In the agriculture sector, drought lowers dairy production and raises the costs of water storage. Horticulture impacts are mostly around what can grow successfully where, with shifts in preferred regions expected for kiwifruit, avocados and blueberries.
Many M?ori businesses tend to focus on agriculture, forestry and aquaculture – all sectors exposed to climate change impacts.
In the oceans, warming moves commercial fish stocks, likely reducing catches. The report says algal blooms and marine heatwaves will affect commercially farmed salmon and shellfish.
Tourist numbers are also likely to fall, as has already been seen after the ex-tropical cyclone Gabrielle. Combined with likely increases in the cost and desirability of international travel in the future, this may deter more international tourists from coming to New Zealand.
The impacts from flooding and land slips on transport and energy networks can also be profound, flowing through to interruptions in supply chains.
These climate updates are published every three years and are mandated under the Environmental Reporting Act 2015, with the first published in 2017.
They show a comprehensive trajectory of climate change impacts in New Zealand which are only going to get worse unless we collectively reduce emissions globally.
In New Zealand, most emissions come from agriculture and transport. Reducing emissions from these sectors would be an appropriate response to obligations New Zealand has under the Paris Agreement.
James Renwick receives funding from MBIE and related organisations. He has had past involvement with the report series.
The Federal Court identifies fundamental flaws in the process involved in granting Aboriginal protection to part of a goldmine site in New South Wales.
Agency changes wording on website as Texas-based firm continues manufacture of plastic container barriers
The Environmental Protection Agency has quietly backtracked on a claim that the US has phased out two of the most dangerous Pfas compounds – Pfoa and Pfos.
The EPA has found that virtually no level of exposure to either in drinking water is safe, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer classifies Pfoa as “carcinogenic to humans” and Pfos as “possibly carcinogenic”. Still, the EPA is allowing Houston-based Inhance to produce containers from which Pfoa has been found to leach at high levels into the containers’ contents. The company makes up to 200m barriers annually for plastic containers used across the US economy.
This article was amended on 18 October 2026 to correct Patricia van Ee’s title, and the story previously stated that Inhance manufactures plastic containers. They make the containers’ barriers.
South Australian oyster growers are reporting recovery after last year’s harmful algal bloom is moving at different speeds along the coastline with challenges including a decrease stock and increase in barnacles.
The crepe myrtle – a medium sized-tree often covered in an explosion of white, pink, purple or red flowers – lines many an Australian street. Lots of people love them but others think of them as an inadequate and over-planted species. Some even refer to them as “crap myrtle”, which is a little harsh.
In the right numbers, these small trees can be a good choice and do well in a small urban courtyard.
But perhaps large scale planting in urban streetscapes is not the best place for them – they can shed large volumes of flowers, which can get mushy and slippery as they decay.
Getting to know the crepe myrtle
Crepe myrtle is the common name for a number of Lagerstroemia species.
That native, Lagerstroemia archeriana, is also known as the Queensland or native crepe myrtle; it’s also just crepe myrtle to many.
It is a purple or pink flowering species found in Queensland and Western Australia, and occurs naturally in drier forests. It has been cultivated for a long time but tends to be better suited to northern Australia.
However, the specimen that most people are familiar with is Lagerstroemia indica, the common crepe myrtle – also known as crape myrtle or crapemyrtle.
The name crepe is thought to relate to the crinkled nature of the flower petals resembling a crêpe (a type of French pancake).
Lagerstroemia indica is a small tree up to about five metres in height, with lovely smooth, silver to coppery coloured bark. But it is best known for its impressive and abundant flowering in white, pink, purple or red.
In full flower and en masse, it’s a stunner. It has been very widely planted in the streets of new urban developments where small blocks, large houses and narrow roads are de rigeuer.
There are also hybrid crepe myrtles – usually a cross between Lagerstroemia indica and the Japanese crepe myrtle Lagerstroemia fauriei, which only produces white flowers.
These hybrids have the advantages of the more robust vigour, mottled bark and disease resistance of the Japanese species but retain the full colour range and magnificent flowering of Lagerstroemia indica. They also have great mottled bark – overall a magnificent combination.
In the right place and in the right numbers, crepe myrtles can be a good choice.Q. H?ng Ph?m/Pexels
A common street tree – but not always loved
Local governments love to plant crepe myrtle as a street tree – it’s compact, boasts impressive flowers and reaches structural maturity in five to ten years. It tolerates a variety of soils and climates, lives for up to 100 years
However, these trees can look or feel a bit small in dense housing estates with big houses; they are just not large enough to give an appropriate sense of scale to this kind of streetscape.
Crepe myrtles also provide less shade and cooling than larger trees, and fewer habitats for organisms such as birds, insects and fungi. Apart from the native version, most crepe myrtle species provide little food source (for humans or animals).
Compared to elms, oaks or eucalypts, the crepe myrtle is a modestly-sized tree; there are no vaulted cathedral-like ceilings of branches with crepe myrtle.
In some places residents top or lop the trees to promote more prolific flowering. This treatment, which shortens the lifespan of trees, is known colloquiolly as crape murder and is not recommended in Australia.
And people often pile clippings high around the trunks, which can result in trunk damage from pest and diseases. It is better to mulch under trees (but don’t let the clippings touch the trunk). You can prune young trees to shape their canopies for appearance.
Tree fashions come and go
Perhaps, to some people, the crepe myrtle just feels out of fashion.
Municipal horticulture has always had an element of fashion, even fads attached to it.
In the past there have been mass plantings of elms, palms, even southern conifers, and more recently of the ornamental pear (Pyrus calleryana) or Manchurian pear (Pyrus ussuriensis). There were doubts about the pears from the start given their history of weediness in the US. But now, despite some great spring flowering, they are going out of fashion and many people strongly dislike them.
Crepe myrtle seems to be on a similar trajectory to the pears. Despite some staunch support for this tree and its lovely flowers, they do not meet the long-term aspirations many people have for urban street trees. Some people fell out of love with them; others wanted them gone altogether.
They have their virtues
Despite the hate, crepe myrtles are likely to to be climate change hardy, as they tend to occur in hotter and drier regions of northern Australia and across Asia.
In the right place and in the right numbers, these small trees can be a good choice. They can look lovely in a garden or courtyard – but perhaps they are not the best pick for large scale planting in urban streetscapes.
In the longer term, only time will tell how successful crepe myrtle will be as street trees and in winning over the hearts and minds of residents.
Gregory Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
