For months, a flood of mice has engulfed Western Australia’s agricultural regions.
For people living through it, this latest mouse plague is all-consuming. Houses, sheds, paddocks and roads are blanketed with mice. And the smell of mice, both dead and alive, is impossible to escape.
It may well be the worst plague the region has ever seen, with scientists recording up to 8,000 mice in each hectare of land. That’s ten times the number needed to officially declare a mouse plague.
But there are signs the plague could end soon. And that’s promising news for local farmers and communities.
Why so many mice?
In WA’s northern wheatbelt region, the current mouse plague started back in April. That was after a cyclone created the ideal conditions for mice to thrive, including increased rainfall and soil moisture that boosted crop yields. However, scientists were warning of a potential mouse plague back in March, based on modelling and field monitoring.
Research suggests large-scale mouse plagues mainly affect Australia and China, but the reasons for this are not yet understood.
Many people in affected regions are wondering when their living nightmare will end.
The good news is, it’s likely to be soon.
There are three main reasons for this.
1. Less food
When it comes to growing crops, Australia is a boom and bust country. While good conditions fuel bumper crops, times of drought reduce crop yields and the growth of native plants.
Rainfall is the single strongest predictor of mouse plagues. High rainfall boosts the growth of plants, including agricultural crops, which provides female mice with the food and nutrition needed to rapidly breed.
Research shows plagues generally occur about three months after unusually high rainfall. However, it also suggests mouse plagues do not occur for at least two years after a significant plague event.
3. More heat
With the right conditions, mouse plagues can stretch from early autumn to winter, and even summer of the following year.
However, WA tends to have hot, dry summers that further compact and suck moisture from the region’s already hard soils. Research shows this makes it much harder for mice to burrow and keep breeding.
The current mouse plague has wreaked havoc in rural communities across WA. That’s because of its scale and its timing, having coincided with the critical crop sowing period.
This prompted local farmers to lobby for double-strength mice bait to be made available, particularly in large-scale crop farming. This higher-dose bait is made of zinc phosphide, and kills mice more quickly and effectively than existing products. This lobbying proved successful, with Australia’s federal pesticides regulator approving it for use in May.
However, concerns are mounting about the effect of this double-strength bait on native birds. This type of bait has been used during previous mouse plagues, without causing secondary poisoning of native wildlife. This is because this bait does not get concentrated in mice, and therefore can’t be ingested by native predators in large quantities.
However, scientists are worried this higher-dose bait will directly poison native birds, particularly those that eat grain from paddocks. One local wildlife carer reported finding 106 native birds either dead or dying, in the small farming community of Coorow. These included western corellas, little corellas, galahs, Regent parrots and Australian ringnecks.
It is possible to test these birds for exposure to zinc phosphide, but such tests are not routinely used for screening dead wildlife and can take weeks or even months to complete. So the long-term effects of using stronger mice baits, particularly on native birds and wildlife, remain unknown.
Communities across WA have borne the brunt of this latest mouse plague. But as winter sets in and the double-strength baits take effect, relief will hopefully come soon.
Robert Davis is a member of Birdlife Australia and the Society for Conservation Biology. He is also Editor in Chief of the journal Pacific Conservation Biology.
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Energy security is a top priority globally, as governments grapple with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an accelerating clean energy transition and surging power demand from AI data centres.
The problem is especially acute for Asia and the Pacific, as both regions are highly dependent on imported fuels.
This is where Australia could step up as a regional energy superpower, rich in both renewables and fossil fuels. Australia could form a new energy security alliance to stabilise regional markets for the long-term.
In the short term, this would mean guaranteeing supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the longer term, green exports such as renewable fuels and battery minerals could form the bedrock of Australia’s energy relationship with Asia.
Energy insecurity is rife across Asia
The war between the United States-Israel and Iran triggered a major disruption to fossil fuel supplies.
After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Asia lost 80% of its oil supply and 27% of its natural gas supply. Flow-on impacts to Pacific nations were significant, as these island nations rely heavily on diesel and food imports.
The deal to end the Iran war doesn’t mean an end to these challenges. This year has shown the risks of relying on Middle Eastern oil and gas producers in a conflict-prone region.
Asia-Pacific governments are looking for reliable partners to ensure energy security.
The world’s top two powers, the United States and China, are jostling to expand their energy exports in the region but in very different ways.
China’s response to the Iran conflict has been to double down on electrification and build its reserves of oil. Beijing is also aggressively expanding its exports of electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and other green tech exports to root out any overseas competition.
Meanwhile, the US is pursuing a strategy of “energy dominance”, focused on producing abundant supplies of oil and gas domestically. Washington believes this will deliver affordable energy, win the AI race against China with cheap power and expand energy exports to bind allies closer.
China has cornered the market in many clean tech exports.koiguo/Getty
Time for a decisive strategy
Without a clear strategy for energy exports, Australia risks becoming a passive spectator.
The risks are twofold. Our role as a coal and LNG exporter could erode as Asian countries look elsewhere to fill their supply gap and we could miss the window of opportunity to grow our clean energy exports.
What should this strategy look like? In practice, it would involve working with allies like the United States and Japan to build a regional energy security alliance. This would focus on meeting the region’s immediate energy needs and enable Australia to play a central role in the region’s transition to clean energy. The Quad members’ recent joint statement is a strong start.
Any such alliance cannot simply focus on securing fossil fuel supply to the region. The shift to clean energy transition must be factored into its design.
Ideally, this alliance should cover the full energy supply chain. That means critical minerals, natural gas, diesel, hydrogen, batteries, data centres and even emerging products such as low-carbon fertilisers.
Australia is poised to take the lead
Australia is the only reliable high-volume LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific.
Key competitors face challenges meeting the region’s needs. Russian gas is heavily sanctioned, Qatari exports have been held hostage in the Strait of Hormuz and US gas export terminals are concentrated on the Gulf Coast, adding 10 extra days in transit to reach Asia compared to shipments from Darwin.
Australia also has some of the greatest clean energy resources in the world, including critical minerals vital to batteries and renewables.
The United States and Canada would also play a role as major LNG and oil producers. Japan would provide the financing and shipping infrastructure that many smaller Southeast Asian nations cannot. The United States and Japan could also help produce the EVs, batteries and clean tech to drive the region’s transition.
Despite the Trump administration’s unfavourable views on wind and solar, US battery manufacturing is forecast to increase five-fold.
An alliance like this would give certainty to Indo-Pacific countries such as the Philippines, Thailand and India that Australia and its allies would not prematurely turn off fossil fuel supply.
This is pragmatic. While Australia is aiming for net zero by 2050, many Asian countries are aiming for 2060 or 2070. They may require fossil fuel supply beyond 2050 – would we rather that supply to come from Australia or Russia?
What needs to happen?
Shifting energy policies and sluggish approval timeframes have left Australia close to a gas shortfall in southern states, slowed the renewable transition and contributed to higher energy costs.
These domestic challenges must be balanced with the region’s current need for Australian energy exports.
The Iran war has shown the world is not yet ready to wean itself off fossil fuels. Despite very rapid shifts to renewables and clean transport, there are years ahead where gas and oil will remain vital.
As the region’s most reliable LNG exporter, Australia is well placed to cement its position in the Indo-Pacific’s energy landscape long-term as green exports ramp up. Grabbing this opportunity requires a cohesive strategy, partnering with like-minded allies and fixing domestic challenges.
Robert Monterosso does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
