Heavy rain on dry ground may cause UK floods but will not reverse drought

‘First meaningful rain for a long time’ is forecast but water firms continue to ask customers to restrict use

Floods and drought could hit the UK at the same time this week, with heavy rain forecast to fall on hard, parched soil.

While some parts of the UK will have the “first meaningful rain for a long time” in the coming days, it will not reverse widespread drought conditions that have put pressure on wildlife, farmers, firefighters and water resources.

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More than 5,000 little penguins will be vaxxed against bird flu. How will this protect them?

More than 5,000 little penguins will be vaxxed against bird flu. How will this protect them?

4FR/Getty

A major push is underway to catch and vaccinate more than 5,000 little penguins in Victoria to protect them against the virulent H5N1 bird flu.

Victorian wildlife officers will carry out vaccinations at little penguin colonies at Phillip Island and St Kilda, in what the state government says is the world’s largest program to target wild birds. One little penguin at Phillip Island has already died of bird flu.

Capturing wildlife for vaccination is difficult, particularly because they may need two or more doses of the vaccine. So, how will this unprecedented program help little penguins?

A significant threat

Little penguins (Eudyptula minor) are the world’s smallest penguin, reaching a height of about 30 centimetres and weighing around 1.5 kilograms. These charismatic birds live on the southern coast of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, as well as Tasmania and New Zealand.

Famously, they can be found on Philip Island in Victoria, where more than 700,000 people come each year to see them emerge from the ocean at sunset and waddle up the beach to their burrows in the “penguin parade”.

The colonies at Philip Island and St Kilda are home to around 40,000 penguins. Because large numbers of birds live close together and the virus is highly infectious, bird flu poses a significant threat.

Two little penguins in the coastal health at Phillip Island.
These little penguins live in burrows in the coastal health at Phillip Island. Goddard_Photography/Getty

Capturing wildlife to vaccinate them is difficult, particularly because the bird flu vaccination requires they be caught twice, for two doses. However, little penguins are flightless, live in colonies and return at night to the same burrow, making them easier to capture and vaccinate.

Birds affected by H5N1 may be unable to stand or fly, or may appear lethargic. They may have an unusual head or neck posture, or die suddenly in large numbers without any signs at all.

Little penguins are already under pressure from invasive predators such as cats and foxes, artificial light, roads and overfishing. Climate change is also taking a toll, with warming oceans reducing fish numbers. A popular tourist attraction in Bicheno, Tasmania, recently had to temporarily close due to adults failing to return to shore and abandoning chicks. Ecologists believed it was linked to a sudden rise in sea temperature.

Other birds also being vaccinated

While the scale of Victoria’s vaccination program of wild birds is unprecedented, New Zealand – the land of birds – is also vaccinating around 300 captive (or flightless) individuals from five species. These include the critically endangered k?k?p? (Strigops habroptilus), and endangered South Island takah? (Porphyrio hochstetteri).

Endangered captive birds in Australian zoos are being vaccinated too, including the regent honeyeater (Anthochaera phrygia), orange-bellied parrot (Neophema chrysogaster) and Western Australia’s black cockatoos.

The federal government recently authorised the use of H5N1 vaccines for priority native bird species. The inactivated viral vaccine (made of dead virus particles) had not been tested on any native birds, much less little penguins, until recently.

Why two doses are needed

Just like many of the vaccines we humans receive, this H5N1 vaccine requires a booster shot.

After the initial vaccination, the vaccinated animal’s immune system can detect foreign viral particles and develop antibodies. The first vaccine shot also produces specialised cells called memory B cells, which remember the protein makeup of the virus when they meet it again.

A second or booster vaccine is often required as part of a vaccination regime, typically after several weeks. This leads to a rapid increase in the number of antibody molecules in the blood because the memory B cells recognise the virus and trigger a wave of antibody production.

Having higher levels of antibodies in the blood increases the chances of them locating a virus in the blood stream, ultimately stopping the virus infecting the penguin.

Vaccines essential to response

Vaccines are not guaranteed to prevent an infection every time, and we cannot vaccinate all the penguins. But they are an important tools we can use to reduce the impact of bird flu on precious wildlife, and protect other animals.

The bird flu virus will continue to evolve and adapt to outsmart the host immune systems, much like COVID. Climate change will put even more stress on wildlife and induce virus adaption. Over time, new vaccines will need to be developed for new virus strains.

For now, bird flu is here and vaccines are an essential part of the fight.

Please not approach or touch birds that are unwell or dead. Report to the Emergency Animal Disease Hotline (1800 675 888).

The Conversation

Julie Old does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Want to fully electrify your house? Don’t start with a battery

Want to fully electrify your house? Don’t start with a battery

BeyondImages/Getty

Many Australians want to go fully electric. But it’s often hard to know where to start. Solar? A home battery? Or quitting gas?

To find the best way to make the shift, we modelled three pathways for a three-bedroom house in Melbourne’s western suburbs.

These pathways show it’s important to do things in the right order. It’s best to start by lowering energy demand through better insulation and stopping draughts, and then switch from gas heating to an efficient reverse-cycle air conditioner. Home batteries should ideally be done last.

What did we do?

We used benchmark data to model a household with ducted gas heating, gas hot water and cooktop, common electric household appliances and a petrol car.

Each year this household uses 5,300 kilowatt-hours of electricity, just under 50 gigajoules of gas, and about 1,230 litres of petrol (to drive 11,100 kilometres). This costs A$2,477 for electricity, $1,494 for gas and $2,255 for petrol. Total energy costs are $6,226 a year.

We modelled replacing these with a 10-kilowatt ducted reverse-cycle air conditioner, a hot water heat pump and an induction cooktop.

We model two further options: one where the household switches to a mid-range EV with a battery of about 60kWh and another where the household keeps its petrol car.

Which pathway?

We tested three pathways to going electric. These don’t include rebates or the cost of the EV.

Pathway 1a – all electric, no battery, EV

Here, the household adds a large 11.76kW solar array, gets off gas and replaces its petrol car with an EV.

Although total electricity use rises, the grid electricity bill falls due to solar. The new electricity bill would be about $1,800. Because gas and petrol costs fall to zero, the household saves about $4,400 yearly.

Total cost: about $32,600.

Pathway 2a – all electric, medium home battery, EV

This pathway mirrors the first, but adds a 13.5kWh home battery at the end. The power bill falls to about $950. Savings would be about $5,300.

Total cost: about $48,100.

Pathway 3a – all electric, large home battery, EV

Here, the household doubles storage to 27kWh. The power bill drops to about $600. It doesn’t reach zero due to low solar over some periods and annual supply charges. Annual savings: about $5,900.

Total cost: about $56,400.

We also model three scenarios (1b, 2b and 3b) where the household keeps its petrol car.

These figures combine the prices in Victoria’s official guide with advertised price benchmarks for installed appliances as of June 2026. The hot water heat pump is costed after an upfront discount. These pathways don’t directly hold for other regions, due to factors such as climatic difference and government incentives.

Stacking rebates

Governments offer a range of rebates and subsidies for households to go electric.

Federal incentives

Pathway 1: Applying a solar rebate means the cost falls to just under $30,000.

Pathway 2: Using solar and battery rebates, the cost falls to about $41,700.

Pathway 3: After both rebates, the cost falls to $47,800.

State rebates

In Victoria, the maximum possible state support comes to just over $6,000.

This includes $1,400 for solar, $1,400 for locally made hot water, and indicative discounts of about $2,500 to replace ducted gas with a 10kW reverse cycle air conditioner, $560 to switch from gas hot water to electric and $140 for induction cooktops. These are maximums, not entitlements, and there are eligibility requirements.

If the household was eligible for all federal and Victorian rebates, the total cost would fall to about $23,900, $35,800 and $41,800 for the three pathways, respectively.

Electrify in the right order

Our modelling suggests an optimal order for going electric.

1. Reduce demand

The first step is making the house more energy efficient by sealing gaps, boosting insulation and adding shading to stop direct sun. This can make it possible to install smaller appliances.

2. Go solar

Solar is a no-brainer almost everywhere. When choosing the size, it’s best to go bigger to power a future all-electric home.

In Melbourne, a 11.76kW array would produce about 15,400kWh a year. Set hot water systems, appliances and EV chargers to run during the day to maximise use of solar. Our modelled all-electric household with an EV uses 8,500kWh a year in total, including 1,800kWh for EV charging.

3. Get off gas

First, replace expensive older gas heaters with a correctly sized reverse-cycle air conditioner. This will bring immediate savings and can also cool in summer.

Next, replace gas hot water with a quiet, efficient heat pump.

Then replace gas cooktops with induction. These can be expensive, so consider trialling a portable induction hob. Finally, abolish the meter.

4. Consider a battery

Batteries should only be installed if they are useful. The most common use is releasing stored power from solar to avoid peak evening rates.

Home batteries are more valuable once gas appliances and petrol cars have been replaced and the home is fully electric. In our model, the first battery saves about $852 a year, while doubling storage saves only another $355 a year. This is why they should be done last if possible.

How quickly does this pay off?

Unlike other home improvements, householders can often recoup the cost of going electric. But payback time differs a lot. Quitting gas can rapidly pay itself off, while oversized home batteries can take much longer.

For our three pathways for a household with an EV, simple payback takes 5.4, 6.8 and 7.4 years respectively. Zero- or low-interest loans offered by some governments can reduce upfront cost, but will push payback time back roughly 2–3 years.

To optimise payback, it’s best to begin by improving the building to reduce energy use, shift away from gas to efficient electric appliances, use solar directly if available and then buy a home battery if warranted.

The Conversation

Negin Amini is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Enabling Eco?Efficient Beneficiation of Minerals.

Saman Gorji does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.